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Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
By Atul and Ananth April 23 2008
Atul, who is known for his keen cricket knowledge and down to earth thinking on all things cricket, thinks that apart from team composition, a strong captain is essential to teams winning tournaments. Here is his take on who will end up holding the trophy:

On current form I can rank the captains from weakest to strongest as follows: VVS Laxman, Rahul Dravid, Yuvraj Singh, Sachin Tendulkar, Shane Warne, Sourav Ganguly, Virender Sehwag, M.S. Dhoni.

Dravid’s Royal Challengers have good bowlers but suffer from the same problem like Laxman’s Chargers, where he is one of the opener.  So I will place the Challengers at no. 8

Tendulkar is tactically very good captain and his captainship is more suited to this form than test but bowling is very weak. I'll place his team, the Mumbai Indians at no 7.

Yuvraj has a good team but his captainship skills are wanting.  He seems to be quite lost in the field sometimes. I'll place his team, the Punjab Kings XI at no 6.

Actually despite his captaincy being the weakest, Laxman's Chargers seem to have a good team composition.  But if first 2 batsman out of 3 are Venugopal Rao and VVS Laxman then essentially team is wasting power play overs and starting maybe 10/15 runs in the hole. But with the inclusion of Adam Gilchrist, Andrew Symonds, and Shahid Afridi I’ll still pick this team to finish at no 5.

Shane Warne has very aggressive skills as captain and has chosen some really good foreign players but limitation of 4 foreign players in the team will limit his maneuvering skills.  Plus he has Mohammad Kaif as opener, a big drag on the strike rate. I'll place his team, the Rajasthan Royals at no 4.

Ganguly is a proven captain and leader but the anticipated departure of some of his key Australian players including Ponting and Hussey to play Test cricket in latter leg of tournament will weaken his side , I'll place his team, the Kolkata Knight Riders at no. 3

Dhoni as captain seems to have the Midas touch and recently their home wicket in Chennai is the flattest wicket you'll ever see.   I expect the Chennai Super Kings to do very good at home but their team composition is little weak than Sehwag’s Delhi Daredevils.  I'll thus place Dhoni’s team at no 2.

Sehwag will be bent on proving that he is a better captain than Dhoni.  Until Dhoni usurped his spot, Sehwag was on track to the Indian captainship throne.  He now may want to capture that throne again.  He has wisely selected in his team probably the best T20 bowlers available to all of the tournament.  The miserly trio of Mohammad Asif, Glenn McGrath, Farvez Maharoof, supported by the explosive batting of the first three batsmen, captain Sehwag, and his two Delhi teammates Gautam Gambhir, and Shikhar Dhawan make the Daredevils my pick for no. 1 team and the likely winners of the tournament.
 

Ananth, similarly has a deep appreciation for the subtleties of cricket be it Test, ODI or T20.  And this is his take on how the teams stack up:

My current rating would be:

1) Delhi - in short evidence, seem to have the best fielding and bowling side. Plus they have Sehwag & Gambhir. I'm not sold on the rest of their batting though. Especially guys like Malik, Dhawan & DK or De Villiers don't inspire great confidence in me. But their bowling is awesome, with McGrath, Asif and Maharoof.  I think they will win the cup.

2) Kolkata - I think the first match was a bit of an aberration but the second game was more like it. They'll win close games, but Ponting & Ganguly have been disappointing with the bat. They won't get low scoring games every time out.  But their versatile team composition should see them being very competitive. 

3) Chennai - Hayden, Hussey, Dhoni, Murali make an excellent veteran core and the youngsters Badri & Raina have been good so far and pretty good fielding side as well. They seem to be the favorites of many pundits.

4) Rajasthan - I have been impressed by the Rajasthan Royals team performing as a unit. These guys could be a handful especially when Graeme Smith, Dimitri Mascarehas, Younis Khan, and Morne Morkel get in. Warne has gelled this team well. Ravindra Jadeja is a find.  Trivedi is ok for this format. And they have some decent pop coming up to join them in the form of Mascarenhas and Morkel.

5) Bangalore - Dravid has looked a better leader than Yuvraj & Laxman and I think he is a better batter in the T20 if he doesn't open and instead comes in later. Also note the guys set to join Bangalore shortly: Anil Kumble, Dale Steyn, Misbah Ul Haq. I'm pretty sure Jaffer will be booted and the young wicketkeeper Shreevats Goswami used when all these guys show up. Heck I'd even play Goswami in place of BoucherSee above. This team is a sleeper pick for me.


6) Mumbai - How will Sachin play? No team's fortunes rest more on one guy than this one. Their bowling looks thin. Pollock came too low down and I think Sanath Jayasuriya is done as a player.   

7) Mohali - Yuvraj looks lost as skipper. Brett Lee looks disinterested. Sree looks as much a basket case as ever. I think their undoing is lack of leadership on the field showing up in their bowling & fielding efforts.

8) Deccan - Laxman seems soft on the field and unable to come up with a coherent batting order. Not much to say about the bowling when you don't put decent scores. Also I think they are catching a Gilly who is aging very fast.
 

The consensus thus seems to be that the top 4 teams are Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata and Rajasthan.  And what do you know?  The current point table reflects this as well.  But will this still be the case come June?  Who will be ICF’s Pundit Maharaj, Peer Syed Sahib and Ajmeri Baba rolled into one?

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Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: flamy (IP Logged)
Date: 22/04/2008 16:00

Modi

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: Gabbar (IP Logged)
Date: 22/04/2008 16:02

good information atul

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years. Abraham Lincoln

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: pure indian (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 01:18

Delhi...all the way !!!! This is coming from a hardcore Mumbaiite!

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: amit (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 02:28

the captains in the ipl would be rated as -

1. sehwag
2. dhoni
3. warne
4. ganguly
5. tendulkar???(he hasnt played in the ipl as of now)
6. laxman
7. dravid(both laxman & dravid arent that aggressive to captain 20/20 teams)
8. yuvraj(not a captaincy material at all)

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: Chorazin Reto (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 03:16

Chennai [:wor kid:]

[aus.cricinfo.com]

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: h4te (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 03:57

Quote:
Chorazin Reto
Chennai [:wor kid:]

yeah budddayyyy!!!! CHENNAI!! woot! woot!

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: anu_D (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 04:23

this is a good thread,...didn;t notice earlier.


Watch out for Warne,....hungriest of them all to show th world his captiancy prowess. He will get a couple of Pak guys and Masceranus.....and Rajasthan will be more imposing.

My gut feel is that FFTB team of the tournament Chennai will collapse the moment they hit some seaming wkts...and barring the first two games...remaining have been bowler dominated 140-165 score type games.

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: ChakDa(re)Devils (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 10:08

DareDevils

They have miser bowlers in McGrath and Asif
They have explosive batsmen in Sehwag and Gambhir
They have clever spinner in Murali Kartik
And most importantly, I support them winking smiley

http://www.cricketnetwork.co.uk/boards/file/s119.htm?118,file=199

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: crazynate (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 10:29

I guess i dont really care who wins i am just enjoying some good cricket.

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: Max (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 11:52

Good analysis by both Atul and ananthd. IMO the captain and coach will play big roles in this type of tournament, with players coming and going and matches played on 8 different grounds. So the teams with the better leadership/support staff will come out on top.

Delhi and Kolkata have started with a flourish, with Delhi especially in red-hot form. However it's still very early days into the tournament.

_______________________

India's Test record against Australia over last 12 years:

Played 26, Won 10, Lost 10, Drawn 6

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: amit (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 13:09

Quote:
anu_D
and barring the first two games...remaining have been bowler dominated 140-165 score type games.

only the 2 matches involving hyderabad have been bowler dominated. i wouldnt call matches where 165+ is chased as "bowler dominated". 165 was the highest chase in icl. only <150 matches come in the category of "bowler dominated"

all the matches have been batsmen dominated till now. scoring 160 in 20/20 is almost like scoring 300 in odi

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: Birbal (IP Logged)
Date: 23/04/2008 23:53

Interesting that the points table (at least currently) reflects Atul and Ananth's thinking...

_____

ICL Ko Support Karo Yaro...

BCCI Ko Joote Chappal Maro....

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: Gabbar (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 15:16

once again very nicely done atul and anandth - now I know which team to root for

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years. Abraham Lincoln

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: Atul (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 16:26

Birbal thanks for editing and kind word.

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: ananthd (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 17:42

Thanks Birbal, for sprucing it up, muchos gracias...

One other dimension is the oncoming Aus tour of WI and the Kiwis touring England...

The Kiwis will have to leave right away, they have a tour match at Kent beginning Apr 28...

The Aussies in the test side have to leave for camp on May 4, so I guess they'd be leaving in a week. The first test is mid May so I guess the West Indians will leave in 2 weeks.

So the Kiwis would miss about 60%, Aussies would miss about 50% of the season and the West Indians about 40%

Teams affected
Delhi - Vettori
Bangalore - Chanderpaul, Ross Taylor
Kolkata - McCullum, Ponting, Gayle
Chennai - Hussey, Hayden, Oram
Deccan - Symonds
Punjab - Lee, Katich, Sarwan, Kyle Mills

This could have some impact on all of the team(Kolkata and Chennai appear worst hit) except Bangalore and that is another reason for those guys to be considered sleepers. Vettori is also leaving, but he is mainly a bowler in a seemingly strong bowling side.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2008:04:24:18:34:16 by ananthd.

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: ananthd (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 17:53

Shane Warne again exemplifies the word INTANGIBLES...

They'd almost lost it, but just pulled off an improbable win in the end...

So I think the rankings still hold...

When Symonds leaves in a week, Deccan will struggle even more with the bat...

Re: Who will win IPL
Posted by: anu_D (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 18:33

Quote:
anu_D
Watch out for Warne,....hungriest of them all to show th world his captiancy prowess. He will get a couple of Pak guys and Masceranus.....and Rajasthan will be more imposing.



==>>I told you ...watch out for WARNE...it's not Rajasthan Royale...but Warne's team that has chance....his decade long desire to captain...finally finding an outlet and spotlight on a world stage

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: Birbal (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 18:57

He did very well as Hampshire Captain...didn't he?

Yes he has a very sharp cricket brain...

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: SA (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 19:00

In comes

Fleming , Albie Morkel and Ntini for us !

I would be happy with those replacements when compared to the rest !



SA

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--- True Legends . True Fans . True Players . True Club ---

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: anu_D (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 19:33

Quote:
Birbal
He did very well as Hampshire Captain...didn't he?
Yes he has a very sharp cricket brain...

==>> I think more than brain...it's raw desire to win...an unstaiated hunger to prove his leadership

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: Birbal (IP Logged)
Date: 24/04/2008 20:54

Yes... but he also has a very sharp cricket brain... and that helps...

_____

ICL Ko Support Karo Yaro...

BCCI Ko Joote Chappal Maro....

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: anu_D (IP Logged)
Date: 25/04/2008 08:16

Quote:
Birbal
Yes... but he also has a very sharp cricket brain... and that helps...

Yes that does complement the leadership and desire to win
Though Tendulkar has an equally sharp cricketimg brain.....but that slone didn;t matter in his captaincy

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: flamy (IP Logged)
Date: 28/04/2008 02:37

Chennai Super KINGS!!!

YEM ESS DHONI!

Re: Who Will Win The IPL Trophy?
Posted by: Birbal (IP Logged)
Date: 28/04/2008 17:07

Hahahahaha

I LIKE that...YEMM ESS DHONI...smiling smiley

_____

ICL Ko Support Karo Yaro...

BCCI Ko Joote Chappal Maro....

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