By Chris Chaplin
December 30 2002

With the relatives gone and a pause before New Year I'm here again to try and puzzle out what's likely to happen on Saturday when the Fez Heads visit Welford Road.

I suppose I should start off by saying that in spite of another debacle at Adams Park on Friday, of which more later, we have been pretty lucky to escape the weekend with so little damage. Fortunately with Sale, Leeds, Saints and Quins also all losing we have dropped just one place in the table, as Wasps move ahead of us into fourth place and we remain just one win shy of third place ahead of next weekend's games.

Of those above us Wasps visit Kingsholm and Leeds entertain Bath, both wins for the home sides I expect. While Saints will vent their spleen on London Irish after their defeat by Glaws and Sale will expect to prevail over Falcons, who are beginning to look likely candidates for the drop.

A win over Sarries will see us move ahead of Wasps and take fifth place and still remain a win away from the top three but a loss to the Men In Black would see us drop to seventh and be so far off the pace as to see inclusion in the playoffs as nigh impossible.

We have heard from Deano of our ability to come back in the second half of the season - well firstly that was not the situation last year when our play gradually deteriorated from the turn of the year and secondly it would be a comeback the like of which Bill Clinton would be proud.

Sarries for their part are in exactly the same position and a loss on Saturday would see their play off ambitions similarly dashed. So both teams should be "up for it" and up for it big time.

I expect we shall be the first to see Sarries latest signing, ex Auckland Blues Tight head Mike Storey, who Wayne Shelford has drafted in to replace long term injury David Flatman. He will join Califano and Cairns in a handy front row and one which has a bit of grunt as well as good mobility.

The ever present threat that is Benazzi will probably team up with Hooper again now that Craig Quinnell has mysteriously and prematurely departed for pastures new but as yet undisclosed and with a backline of Tony Roques, Kris Chesney, who by all accounts had a first rate game against Leeds, and the world class Richard Hill the pack, on paper, has a decent look about it.

However it's main area of expertise is in the loose and I never think it looks terribly secure in set piece situations, with it's line out performance being an area which I am sure concerns the Vicarage Road faithful.

Behind the scrum Kyran Bracken began his campaign to show that stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated and at fly-half there is a glut of possibilities with the mercurial Thomas Castaignede, Tim Horan or the erratic Andy Goode available,assuming that the little Frenchman has recovered from his latest injury.

At centre Tim Horan can also make an appearance and whether at 10 or 12 this latent retiree can destroy defences with a dip of the shoulder and a step on the gas, which he still has in plenty.

Kevin Sorrell and in particular Tom Shanklin are two talented centres both of whom can pick a good line and have the pace to make it count.

On the wings I have to confess I know little about utility back, young Arasa, however the Kenyan born wing is clearly quick enough being part of the England Sevens setup and has been on the score sheet for Sarries on more than one occasion. I can tell you that Darragh O'Mahony is both quick and has a step capable of confounding most defenders. At full back, if Castaignede is not selected there through injury or is at 10, we shall probably see Winnan who, while not "star", is one of those players who does little wrong, although I think he lacks a little pace to enable him to maximise the potential counter attack.

Added to the talented group mentioned already Nikki Little and Johnston among others are in the wings.

The big issue is really whether the Sarries tight five will be able to win enough quality ball from the set pieces in general and the line out in particular to permit their dangerous back row or the potentially lethal half back combination of Bracken with either Goode, Horan or Castaignede to cut the opposing defence to ribbons thereby releasing the centres, who can be visionary on their day, with speed and guile outside to finish the job.

Tigers?

I saw the game at Adams Park and have to confess that as soon as I saw the starting line up I feared the worst. Now I've read Deano's comments about the team's performance being unacceptable which it was but no more so than the management decisions that played a major part in this latest defeat. Quite how, when faced with an ex-England #10 and arguably the best Scrum Half in the World of recent times, two youngsters such as Harry Ellis and Sam Vesty are sent out to face them defeats me. If we are not very careful the confidence of these two talented young men will be destroyed. Why on earth did Irish International Tierney not start? Where is McMullen? The Brunbie has thus far only made a solitary first fifteen appearance against Saints at Franklin's Gardens.

I thought the pack did very well in the set pieces and pretty well in the loose, given Mr Pearson's love fest with Dallagio and I suppose we should be grateful that Lal didn't bring along a Machete because Pearson would have probably also have felt it's use to be in order! However here again why was the best player on the park, Josh Kronfeld, taken off to make way for Backy? Surely he should have moved to 6.

But it was at half back we were destroyed and I find it hard to blame young Ellis and Vesty who understandably sunk rather than swam. It is hard to judge the rest of the team from 11 onward as they saw so little of the ball as to make judgement impossible. However again the question has to be asked why young Holtby was preferred to Murphy, Booth or Raynor, who again warmed the bench until, as at London Irish, he made a brief five minute appearance. He must think he's joined the Band of Forlorn Hope!

It may be that all of the absentees are injured but given Deano's obsession for secrecy who knows?

The team selection was so bizarre as to make me wonder whether there is a strategy to try and win all the remaining Premiership home games, while furthering HEC and Powergen ambitions, and thereby secure a top seven spot which would provide a backstop for 2003/4 HEC entry if all else fails and to field "wing and a prayer" sides for the away matches. This would certainly explain why the players look demotivated. Incidentally this was back line combination number sixteen.

What of Saturday? Well it's hard to forecast a result when team selection is so unfathomable. However if my guess at the management's strategy is correct we should see a full strength team at Welford Road. If so I would expect a tight five of Rowntree/West/Franck or Garf., teamed with Johnno and Kay, to win the Lion's share of the lineouts with our duo being more than a match for Benazzi and Hooper and give the Sarries front row a difficult time at the scrum, even though Storey will be raring to go and Califano is in decent form.

Hopefully Corry will be recovered to give us an extra dimension at the lineout and if he partners Backy and Josh I think they should be able to win the battle of the rucks and in spite of Hill's presence I'd back our trio in the loose as well.

Well I suppose there's no point saying that Healey should be at 9 (although he should) so surely against Bracken Tierney must start, presumably with Oz at 10. This is our strongest combination but they'll need to be on their mettle defensively if either Horan or Castaignede are at 10. Goode would need a stormer to be a threat. At 11 I assume Fred will start so as to keep his opposite number and Winnan honest, probably to be replaced by Booth or Raynor when the game loosens up. I don't think Rod looks to have the appetite at the moment, if his missed tackle that let Lewsey score is anything to go by and I'd not be all that surprised to see Gelderbloom preferred, certainly his defensive qualities would be welcome against the Sarries centres as would his more inventive style when going forward.. With Ollie at 13 I feel they'll be able to contain the possible Sarries combinations of centres, even if Horan is released from fly-half duties and plays there. At 14 it must be Geordan, without whom we simply do not have any inspiration behind the pack and at 15 Stimpson - of course.

I'd like to see McMullen on the bench as well and given a run out at some point. Vesty and Ellis should be given a weekend off - they need it.

The result? Well who knows? If we play a full strength side then in spite of the talent behind the Sarries pack I think domination by the Tigers eight should give the backs of Tierney/Healey/Fred/Gelderbloom/Smith/Geordan and Stimmo enough ball with which to do something. However, I first commend a comparative viewing of the Glaws pack's performance against Saints last Saturday to our's on 30 November as instructional of the phrase being "up for it".

If Deano has another agenda and we get some hybrid pack for example then I fear the worst. Tigers should win and win well - But as I say who knows these days?

Happy New Year.